Publications:
Sullivan, M., (2024), Understanding and Predicting Monetary Policy Framework Choice in Developing Countries, Economic Modelling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106783
Working Papers:
Is there a home advantage in local-league table tennis matches? (co-authors: M Pandazis & A Butt)
Abstract: We analyse 6,298 games from three divisions in the North West Kent (NWK) Table Tennis League over three seasons to investigate the existence of a home advantage. Match outcomes are evaluated using two measures: a binary win/loss indicator and a pseudo-continuous variable representing leg difference. This study contributes to the relatively limited literature on table tennis by explicitly linking potential mechanisms of home advantage to the unique characteristics of the sport and by applying more rigorous statistical methods. We account for player skill using Elo ratings provided by the league. Our analysis reveals that home players tend to be slightly stronger on average; however, a modest home advantage persists even after adjusting for player skill. Specifically, when the home player has a higher Elo rating, their win rate is 52.06%. Our model further estimates an average home win probability of 51.73%, which is statistically greater than 50%. Our findings suggest that, all else being equal, playing at home offers a slight, but significant, home advantage in the NWK table tennis league.
How monetary policy framework choice affects FDI in emerging and developing countries
Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy framework (MPF) choice and FDI inflows for 83 emerging and developing countries. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing model specification concerns present in previous studies on exchange rate regimes and FDI, by providing the first quantification of MPF effects on FDI, and by emphasising the economic significance of the estimated impact. We estimate the average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) using four different approaches: (1) inverse probability weighting (IPW) with propensity scores estimated via logistic regression, (2) treatment-weighted estimation using logistic propensity scores, (3) treatment-weighted propensity scores estimated via generalised boosted modelling (GBM) using the twang package, and (4) double debiased machine learning (DDML) with stacking. Across all models, the results consistently show that countries with a discretionary (D) MPF receive less FDI than those with an exchange rate (ER) MPF. The preferred model—DDML with stacking—estimates that D-framework countries receive, on average, 2.84 percentage points less FDI (as a share of GDP) than ER-framework countries. This difference is not only statistically significant, but also economically meaningful, exceeding the average annual increase in FDI inflows for developing countries during key benchmark years.
Work in Progress:
Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy frameworks
Conferences:
UPCOMING:
September 2025 - MMF, University of Reading
PAST:
May 2024 - SWEETS Workshop, University of Southampton
January 2024 - SGPE PhD Conference, Crieff
June 2023 - ASPEC, University of Sussex
June 2023 - Heriot-Watt's 3-Minute Thesis (3MT) Competition Finalist
June 2023 - AEEFI's XXIV Conference on International Economics, University of Alcalá
May 2023 - MMF PhD Conference, University of Sheffield
January 2023 - SGPE PhD Conference, Crieff
June 2022 - SGPE PhD Conference, Crieff
June 2022 - ASPEC, University of Reading